Nation’s Trick-Or-Treaters Assured Falling Cocoa Prices Will Reach Their Pillowcases Sometime Before They Turn 30

COLUMBUS, OHIO—With Halloween one week away, the nation’s chocolate industry on Friday reassured America’s children that a historic collapse in cocoa prices would eventually reach their pillowcases, likely sometime before their 30th birthdays.

Cocoa futures have fallen by more than half from their 2024 peak, but shoppers are still paying record prices because manufacturers buy cocoa months or even years in advance. Halloween chocolate is averaging $5.67 a package, up 15.5 percent, according to one consultancy’s count.

“Think of it like starlight,” said Brent Tolliver, a fictional confectionery analyst at Sweetwater Partners, gesturing at a bag of fun-size bars. “The price you’re seeing tonight was actually emitted in 2024. The cheap cocoa is out there. It’s just still traveling toward you.”

A generation learns about forward contracts

Parents across the country said they were using the moment as a teachable one. “I sat my kids down and explained hedging, futures and the West African growing season,” said Monica Reyes, 38, of Dayton. “My 7-year-old asked if that meant he could have two Reese’s. I said no, but now he understands why, which is somehow worse.”

“The price you’re seeing tonight was actually emitted in 2024.”

Some households have adapted by switching to non-chocolate candy, whose prices rose just 1.8 percent, or by buying candy before October to spread out the cost. Others reported simply turning off the porch light, drawing the curtains and lying on the floor until 9 p.m., a strategy experts called ‘effective, if spiritually costly.’

Industry observers noted that when cocoa prices do fall far enough to matter, companies will face a difficult question about whether to pass along savings to customers who are already paying the higher price. At press time, the question had been referred to a committee scheduled to meet sometime around Halloween 2029.